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Please note with regard our historic news, Oaktree Wealth Management rebranded to Harpsden Wealth Management as of April 2015.
Commentary, August 2020 Asset Allocation
A lot has happened over the last month since I published my quarterly commentary. Investor sentiment has shifted from focussing on the inevitable economic recovery from the deep, mandated downturn to assessing the impact of a re-escalation of virus cases in the US, Japan and […]
Q2 Commentary, July 2020
However, as previously intimated the scale of government and Central Bank responses has been breath-taking compared to history and financial markets were restored to normal functioning within a month of the crisis hitting (if one doesn’t mind this amount of government intervention in markets). This is unprecedented and has led to massive recapitalisation by the corporate sector which will in turn facilitate a more robust recovery than otherwise would be the case.
Commentary, May 2020 Asset Allocation
In April PMIs around the world have almost all hit record lows or touched 2009 levels. Car sales were down 96% in Italy and Spain and new car registrations fell by more than 97% in the UK. Japanese machine tool orders were down 40% year-on-year in March and Goldman Sachs suggested that Indian GDP could fall at a quarterly annualised rate of -45% in Q2
18th May Coronavirus Client Update
Markets have been further bolstered by massive amounts of both fiscal and monetary stimulus. Actual real economy data has set several records for its awfulness, especially in the Western World, but as economies were largely shut these numbers have been considered inevitable and thus of not much relevance to investors. How the recovery evolves from here is of much more importance.
Q1 Commentary, April 2020
We suffered in Q1 with our emphasis on dividend equities over government bonds and an average market capitalisation below benchmark. However, our analysis leads us to the conclusion that the returns from such companies have merely been deferred, not cancelled whilst government bonds have become ever more dangerous. We therefore expect to participate well when investors come to the conclusion this has been a temporary pause in global growth and it’s not the end of the world.
Coronavirus Commentary 27th March 2020
Meanwhile there is mounting evidence that much of Asia has the virus under control and that China is continuing to get back to work. This is happening just as the West is locking down so obviously exports will be impacted for the duration of such. However, it is still good to see that there is economic resurrection post the viral collapse. As we are in the early stages of lockdown it doesn’t seem like it in our daily lives at present, so another perspective is useful.
Commentary, March 2020 Asset Allocation
Since the first meeting of the year in January things have certainly escalated. We were then talking about the initial reaction of equities after the emergence of the virus in China. Now we have seen the virus take hold around the world, with Europe now the epicentre and the US not far behind.
Coronavirus Commentary 19th March 2020
The UK has already pledged £32 billion in immediate relief plus another £330 billion in loan guarantees. The US are proposing over US$1 trillion in relief including direct payments to families. Mortgage and rate relief is also being introduced.
March 2020 Budget Briefing
For the coming year, statutory sick pay will be available to more people and so will some other social security benefits. Business Rates will be reduced or even eliminated for some smaller businesses – at least in the short term. Other immediate support initiatives for smaller businesses include greater access to bank lending, as well as enhancements to the HMRC ‘Time to Pay’ service.
Coronavirus Commentary 13th March 2020
In the West equity markets have fallen more than I thought they would but in China the reaction has, hitherto, been more muted and if anything a little less dramatic than one could have anticipated.
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