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Please note with regard our historic news, Oaktree Wealth Management rebranded to Harpsden Wealth Management as of April 2015.
Commentary, May 2019
I said in my January commentary that activity and sentiment seemed to be the diametric opposite of January 2018 and would likely evolve in the opposite way too (i.e. go from bad to better as opposed to good to worse like last year). We still seem to be just about on track for such an outcome […]
Q1 Commentary, April 2019
Despite the likely wobbles in between, I am reasonably confident more money will be made between now and year end. With the obvious, and big, caveat that this is dependent on policy makers behaving themselves.
Commentary, March 2019
Since our last commentary on January 31st the Manufacturing economy around the globe continued to slow markedly whilst Services slowed only a little and included more pockets of strength than the industrial side of the economy. Some of the more influential economic releases since the last […]
US Research Trip March 2019 Commentary
I attended the 2019 RJIS Investment Conference in Florida during the first week of March. Whilst there I met the management (mostly CFO’s) of twenty seven companies spanning the house building, retail, railroads, industrial manufacturing, consumer goods, technology distribution […]
Commentary, January 2019
Economic numbers have generally been weak over the last two months with the not inconsiderable exception of employment and wage data. Examples of the weakness include Japanese exports, Chinese exports and imports, Chinese Credit Creation dropping below 10% growth for the […]
Q4 2018 Commentary
As the quarter progressed there have been increasing signs trade frictions are affecting global trade as well as business, investor and consumer confidence. From UK airlines and holiday companies to European car makers to US semiconductor […]
Market Commentary, December 2018
Although you will have recently received my November Commentary and I have nearly finished my Quarterly Commentary for the period ended December, I am writing to you now in light of the dramatic fall in equity markets, led by the US, in the last[…]
Commentary, November 2018
The British Chamber of Commerce reported that hiring intentions are at a twenty five year low due to Brexit and labour shortages. This is coincident with the number of EU residents working in the U.K. falling 132,000 year on year, the fastest drop on record[…]
Q3 2018 Commentary
The US administration is taking an unusual strategy of fighting (economically) on as many fronts as it possibly can. Such a strategy inevitably fails in war and its results in economics are likely to be sub optimal over time as well. Contemporaneously, China is trying to deleverage without slowing economic growth by too much – following a period during which they have taken on debt at a rate which caused all emerging markets before them to incur serious economic problems.[…]
July 2018 Harpsden CIO Commentary
We have seen the US economy accelerate from a sub par first quarter to the fastest rate of growth since 2014. China is still showing signs of slowing whilst the depreciation of their currency against the dollar is causing the People’s Bank of China to publicly state that weakening their currency is not a matter of policy in the face of a potential trade war.
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