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Please note with regard our historic news, Oaktree Wealth Management rebranded to Harpsden Wealth Management as of April 2015.
Q4 Commentary, January 2021
So, in conclusion 2021 looks good for the economy, more predictable with regards to trade policy and encouraging for corporate profits.
January 2021 UK Lockdown Client Update
To conclude, the removal of uncertainty, an economic recovery supported by policymakers and pent-up consumer demand, as well as a market that is cheap, under-owned and with supportive dividend growth potential means that the UK remains attractive on a multi-year time horizon, despite the imposition of Lockdown 3.
China Research Report November 2020
Despite being the largest contributor to global growth and the second largest economy in the world with over 17% of global GDP (adjusted for PPP), China remains a relatively peripheral figure in global equity and fixed income indices. […]
Commentary, August 2020 Asset Allocation
A lot has happened over the last month since I published my quarterly commentary. Investor sentiment has shifted from focussing on the inevitable economic recovery from the deep, mandated downturn to assessing the impact of a re-escalation of virus cases in the US, Japan and […]
Q2 Commentary, July 2020
However, as previously intimated the scale of government and Central Bank responses has been breath-taking compared to history and financial markets were restored to normal functioning within a month of the crisis hitting (if one doesn’t mind this amount of government intervention in markets). This is unprecedented and has led to massive recapitalisation by the corporate sector which will in turn facilitate a more robust recovery than otherwise would be the case.
Commentary, May 2020 Asset Allocation
In April PMIs around the world have almost all hit record lows or touched 2009 levels. Car sales were down 96% in Italy and Spain and new car registrations fell by more than 97% in the UK. Japanese machine tool orders were down 40% year-on-year in March and Goldman Sachs suggested that Indian GDP could fall at a quarterly annualised rate of -45% in Q2
18th May Coronavirus Client Update
Markets have been further bolstered by massive amounts of both fiscal and monetary stimulus. Actual real economy data has set several records for its awfulness, especially in the Western World, but as economies were largely shut these numbers have been considered inevitable and thus of not much relevance to investors. How the recovery evolves from here is of much more importance.
Q1 Commentary, April 2020
We suffered in Q1 with our emphasis on dividend equities over government bonds and an average market capitalisation below benchmark. However, our analysis leads us to the conclusion that the returns from such companies have merely been deferred, not cancelled whilst government bonds have become ever more dangerous. We therefore expect to participate well when investors come to the conclusion this has been a temporary pause in global growth and it’s not the end of the world.
Coronavirus Commentary 27th March 2020
Meanwhile there is mounting evidence that much of Asia has the virus under control and that China is continuing to get back to work. This is happening just as the West is locking down so obviously exports will be impacted for the duration of such. However, it is still good to see that there is economic resurrection post the viral collapse. As we are in the early stages of lockdown it doesn’t seem like it in our daily lives at present, so another perspective is useful.
Coronavirus Commentary 19th March 2020
The UK has already pledged £32 billion in immediate relief plus another £330 billion in loan guarantees. The US are proposing over US$1 trillion in relief including direct payments to families. Mortgage and rate relief is also being introduced.
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