Please note with regard our historic news, Oaktree Wealth Management rebranded to Harpsden Wealth Management as of April 2015.

Q4 Commentary, January 2020

I still expect 2020 to be better for the industrial economy than 2019 but the more predictable the outlook for global trade becomes the more meaningful the improvement will be.

Commentary, November 2019 Asset Allocation

Lastly, the other change in investor behaviour of late is that they seem to have fallen out of love with fast growing loss making companies. Privately owned WeWork is the poster child of this ilk

Q3 Commentary, October 2019

When one combines the facts some parts of manufacturing have been in a decline for a while (the nascent recovery earlier in the year being sniffed out by the re- escalation of trade issues in May) and both Central Banks and governments anxious to avoid deflation, then there is a good chance things shall improve from here.

Commentary, July 2019 Asset Allocation

UK Markit Manufacturing PMI below 50, a 14% drop in investment into the UK from foreign firms, the Japanese Tankan report, US Philadelphia Fed Index reading of 0.3 versus 10.4 expected, Chinese Manufacturing PMI below 50 and a 2.2% drop in German factory orders in June are all examples of industrial weakness.

Commentary, Q2 2019 Asset Allocation

Although I was very optimistic on equities at the beginning of the year and still expect some markets to eke out gains I have to confess a lot of the progress I expected has already been achieved in European and US Indices. There is a little more to go for in Asia whilst Japan and the UK could play catch up if politics plays out in a benign fashion[…]

Commentary, May 2019

I said in my January commentary that activity and sentiment seemed to be the diametric opposite of January 2018 and would likely evolve in the opposite way too (i.e. go from bad to better as opposed to good to worse like last year). We still seem to be just about on track for such an outcome […]

Q1 Commentary, April 2019

Despite the likely wobbles in between, I am reasonably confident more money will be made between now and year end. With the obvious, and big, caveat that this is dependent on policy makers behaving themselves.

Commentary, March 2019

Since our last commentary on January 31st the Manufacturing economy around the globe continued to slow markedly whilst Services slowed only a little and included more pockets of strength than the industrial side of the economy. Some of the more influential economic releases since the last […]

US Research Trip March 2019 Commentary

I attended the 2019 RJIS Investment Conference in Florida during the first week of March. Whilst there I met the management (mostly CFO’s) of twenty seven companies spanning the house building, retail, railroads, industrial manufacturing, consumer goods, technology distribution […]

Commentary, January 2019

Economic numbers have generally been weak over the last two months with the not inconsiderable exception of employment and wage data. Examples of the weakness include Japanese exports, Chinese exports and imports, Chinese Credit Creation dropping below 10% growth for the […]

Archive Commentaries & Briefings

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