Author: Ian Brady

Q3 Commentary, October 2019

When one combines the facts some parts of manufacturing have been in a decline for a while (the nascent recovery earlier in the year being sniffed out by the re- escalation of trade issues in May) and both Central Banks and governments anxious to avoid deflation, then there is a good chance things shall improve from here.

Commentary, July 2019 Asset Allocation

UK Markit Manufacturing PMI below 50, a 14% drop in investment into the UK from foreign firms, the Japanese Tankan report, US Philadelphia Fed Index reading of 0.3 versus 10.4 expected, Chinese Manufacturing PMI below 50 and a 2.2% drop in German factory orders in June are all examples of industrial weakness.

Commentary, May 2019

I said in my January commentary that activity and sentiment seemed to be the diametric opposite of January 2018 and would likely evolve in the opposite way too (i.e. go from bad to better as opposed to good to worse like last year). We still seem to be just about on track for such an outcome […]

Q1 Commentary, April 2019

Despite the likely wobbles in between, I am reasonably confident more money will be made between now and year end. With the obvious, and big, caveat that this is dependent on policy makers behaving themselves.

Commentary, March 2019

Since our last commentary on January 31st the Manufacturing economy around the globe continued to slow markedly whilst Services slowed only a little and included more pockets of strength than the industrial side of the economy. Some of the more influential economic releases since the last […]

US Research Trip March 2019 Commentary

I attended the 2019 RJIS Investment Conference in Florida during the first week of March. Whilst there I met the management (mostly CFO’s) of twenty seven companies spanning the house building, retail, railroads, industrial manufacturing, consumer goods, technology distribution […]

Commentary, January 2019

Economic numbers have generally been weak over the last two months with the not inconsiderable exception of employment and wage data. Examples of the weakness include Japanese exports, Chinese exports and imports, Chinese Credit Creation dropping below 10% growth for the […]

Q4 2018 Commentary

As the quarter progressed there have been increasing signs trade frictions are affecting global trade as well as business, investor and consumer confidence. From UK airlines and holiday companies to European car makers to US semiconductor […]

Market Commentary, December 2018

Although you will have recently received my November Commentary and I have nearly finished my Quarterly Commentary for the period ended December, I am writing to you now in light of the dramatic fall in equity markets, led by the US, in the last[…]

Commentary, November 2018

The British Chamber of Commerce reported that hiring intentions are at a twenty five year low due to Brexit and labour shortages. This is coincident with the number of EU residents working in the U.K. falling 132,000 year on year, the fastest drop on record[…]


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