Author: Ian Brady

Q4 Commentary, January 2021

So, in conclusion 2021 looks good for the economy, more predictable with regards to trade policy and encouraging for corporate profits.

Q3 Commentary, October 2020

In conclusion, short term markets are in the hands of politicians – be it the final throws of Brexit, the US Presidential Election and/or how they handle Covid. However, the resolve to reboot the global economy as soon as is possible cannot be questioned given the efforts thus far.

Commentary, August 2020 Asset Allocation

A lot has happened over the last month since I published my quarterly commentary. Investor sentiment has shifted from focussing on the inevitable economic recovery from the deep, mandated downturn to assessing the impact of a re-escalation of virus cases in the US, Japan and […]

Q2 Commentary, July 2020

However, as previously intimated the scale of government and Central Bank responses has been breath-taking compared to history and financial markets were restored to normal functioning within a month of the crisis hitting (if one doesn’t mind this amount of government intervention in markets). This is unprecedented and has led to massive recapitalisation by the corporate sector which will in turn facilitate a more robust recovery than otherwise would be the case.

18th May Coronavirus Client Update

Markets have been further bolstered by massive amounts of both fiscal and monetary stimulus. Actual real economy data has set several records for its awfulness, especially in the Western World, but as economies were largely shut these numbers have been considered inevitable and thus of not much relevance to investors. How the recovery evolves from here is of much more importance.

Q1 Commentary, April 2020

We suffered in Q1 with our emphasis on dividend equities over government bonds and an average market capitalisation below benchmark. However, our analysis leads us to the conclusion that the returns from such companies have merely been deferred, not cancelled whilst government bonds have become ever more dangerous. We therefore expect to participate well when investors come to the conclusion this has been a temporary pause in global growth and it’s not the end of the world.

Coronavirus Commentary 27th March 2020

Meanwhile there is mounting evidence that much of Asia has the virus under control and that China is continuing to get back to work. This is happening just as the West is locking down so obviously exports will be impacted for the duration of such. However, it is still good to see that there is economic resurrection post the viral collapse. As we are in the early stages of lockdown it doesn’t seem like it in our daily lives at present, so another perspective is useful.

Coronavirus Commentary 19th March 2020

The UK has already pledged £32 billion in immediate relief plus another £330 billion in loan guarantees. The US are proposing over US$1 trillion in relief including direct payments to families. Mortgage and rate relief is also being introduced.

Coronavirus Commentary 13th March 2020

In the West equity markets have fallen more than I thought they would but in China the reaction has, hitherto, been more muted and if anything a little less dramatic than one could have anticipated.

US Research Trip March 2020 commentary

Some heavily indebted companies, mostly within travel related industries, will likely fail but by year end the virus will be another talking point in annual reviews rather than something like Lehman which fundamentally changed the global economy.


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