Author: Ian Brady

Coronavirus Commentary 27th March 2020

Meanwhile there is mounting evidence that much of Asia has the virus under control and that China is continuing to get back to work. This is happening just as the West is locking down so obviously exports will be impacted for the duration of such. However, it is still good to see that there is economic resurrection post the viral collapse. As we are in the early stages of lockdown it doesn’t seem like it in our daily lives at present, so another perspective is useful.

Coronavirus Commentary 19th March 2020

The UK has already pledged £32 billion in immediate relief plus another £330 billion in loan guarantees. The US are proposing over US$1 trillion in relief including direct payments to families. Mortgage and rate relief is also being introduced.

Coronavirus Commentary 13th March 2020

In the West equity markets have fallen more than I thought they would but in China the reaction has, hitherto, been more muted and if anything a little less dramatic than one could have anticipated.

US Research Trip March 2020 commentary

Some heavily indebted companies, mostly within travel related industries, will likely fail but by year end the virus will be another talking point in annual reviews rather than something like Lehman which fundamentally changed the global economy.

Coronavirus – Market update March 2020

Given the latest dislocation in financial markets globally I would like to update you on my thoughts on how I see things developing and what actions I am taking. I would like to say straight away that I am not a virologist and last formally studied biology at age fourteen. However I have, as a […]

Commentary, January 2020 Asset Allocation

Not much has happened since the last meeting at the end of November. Apart from the UK election, the assassination of Iran’s General Soleimani by the US, the outbreak of the coronavirus in China, the signing of Phase One of the Sino-US trade agreement and the impeachment of the US President.

Q4 Commentary, January 2020

I still expect 2020 to be better for the industrial economy than 2019 but the more predictable the outlook for global trade becomes the more meaningful the improvement will be.

Commentary, November 2019 Asset Allocation

Lastly, the other change in investor behaviour of late is that they seem to have fallen out of love with fast growing loss making companies. Privately owned WeWork is the poster child of this ilk

Q3 Commentary, October 2019

When one combines the facts some parts of manufacturing have been in a decline for a while (the nascent recovery earlier in the year being sniffed out by the re- escalation of trade issues in May) and both Central Banks and governments anxious to avoid deflation, then there is a good chance things shall improve from here.

Commentary, July 2019 Asset Allocation

UK Markit Manufacturing PMI below 50, a 14% drop in investment into the UK from foreign firms, the Japanese Tankan report, US Philadelphia Fed Index reading of 0.3 versus 10.4 expected, Chinese Manufacturing PMI below 50 and a 2.2% drop in German factory orders in June are all examples of industrial weakness.


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